Macro Trends

Web3 and Web4 are both widely used to describe blueprints for the next stage of the internet, and they are therefore often compared side by side. While the two share surface level similarities in reshaping digital relationships, enhancing user sovereignty, and improving interaction experiences, they differ significantly in their underlying drivers, data processing logic, and risk structures.

Gate Research Daily Report: Affected by factors including Trump’s proposed 15% global tariffs, Bitcoin lacks strong upward momentum. Ethereum continues to consolidate near its 20-day low, with multiple momentum indicators still pointing to a weak market structure. PIPPIN rose 16.62%, mainly driven by strong speculative buying and community momentum. POWER gained 12.05%, largely fueled by leveraged trading activity. Anthropic’s announcement on automating COBOL system modernization triggered an 11% drop in IBM’s share price. ZachXBT is set to release a major investigation, with prediction markets and Trump-related projects expected to face scrutiny. Vitalik sold 10,700 ETH this month at an average price of $2,027, drawing market attention.

In January, BTC and ETH trading volumes generally fluctuated at elevated levels. Market sentiment shifted from a recovery phase toward caution, with limited trend persistence. Stablecoin market capitalization across major blockchains remained highly concentrated, with Ethereum accounting for more than half of the total. Gold and silver prices reached record highs, while the market cap of tokenized commodities surpassed $5 billion. Prediction markets recorded a new monthly high of $12 billion in trading volume, with both activity and fees expanding in tandem. The Web3 industry completed 53 funding rounds in January, with capital primarily flowing into blockchain services and the CeFi sector. Smart contract vulnerabilities continued to be the leading source of Web3 security risks.

Gate Research Daily Report: On February 13, BTC traded with a weak consolidation bias, briefly dipping to USD 65,230 before stabilizing and hovering in the USD 65,400–65,600 range; ETH failed to hold above USD 1,980 and pulled back, currently consolidating weakly between USD 1,910–1,930; GT retreated after a prior rebound, oscillating around USD 6.90; BTR surged +63.33% over 24 hours, becoming the market standout amid renewed Bitcoin ecosystem momentum. On the macro front, Standard Chartered lowered its long-term price targets for BTC and ETH, Vitalik emphasized that crypto applications should refocus on product fundamentals, and the acquisition of Northern Data’s mining business by entities linked to Tether executives drew market attention.

The article combines price trends with inventory data to argue that the current silver market is not merely driven by sentiment, but reflects a structural crisis of "highly leveraged paper silver versus extreme physical shortages."

In January 2026, the public chain landscape showed structural reallocation rather than an overall cooldown, with on-chain activity concentrating in high-frequency and high-efficiency networks. Solana maintained strong activity levels, Ethereum reinforced its role as a settlement layer, and Base expanded on the back of narrative-driven momentum, while some traditional L2s and sidechains weakened. Market capital allocation logic is increasingly shifting toward real usage efficiency. On Bitcoin, price action continues to oscillate around the short-term holder cost basis, with profit-taking cooling and selling pressure easing. Stress remains concentrated among short-term holders, while long-term holder structure stays intact, suggesting a mid-cycle consolidation rather than a trend reversal. At the project level, the rebound in Solana meme activity has reignited launchpad ecosystems. Pump.fun remains dominant, while Bags App has scaled rapidly through its novel “donation-driven” mechanism, leaving the sector in a

Gate Research Weekly Report: After a sharp sell-off, the market has entered a consolidation phase, with BTC and ETH still capped by key moving averages. Capital is rotating back into high-beta sectors such as AI, signaling a modest recovery in risk appetite. Ethereum’s staking ratio has surpassed 30%, reaching a new all-time high and pointing to ongoing supply contraction and a rebalancing of liquidity structures. Zerohash’s integration with Monad and USDC is advancing the deployment of stablecoin payment infrastructure at the L1 level. Tether’s U.S. Treasury holdings continue to expand, accelerating the integration of stablecoins into the short-term interest rate system. Overall crypto market capitalization continues to decline, indicating that the market remains in a near-term de-risking phase. Meanwhile, Anchorage has completed a strategic financing round of approximately $100 million, with participation from Tether.

Gate Research Daily Report: On February 11, the crypto market remained under downward pressure, with major assets trading in a weak consolidation range as BTC and ETH hovered at elevated levels without clear directional momentum. On the thematic front, capital continued to rotate into high-narrative trades: POWER surged on strong volume driven by the Web3 incentive-layer narrative and ecosystem partnership developments; PIPPIN rebounded sharply on the back of AI creator IP momentum and sentiment recovery; while SONIC strengthened amid the SVM expansion narrative and intensified community exposure. Structurally, the tokenized Treasury market surpassed $10 billion in size, reinforcing RWA’s role as a foundational asset within on-chain finance, while Gate TradFi’s cumulative trading volume exceeded $33 billion.

Gate Research Daily Report: Bitcoin’s $69,000–$71,000 range is the key zone for bulls to validate the sustainability of the rebound. Ethereum is gradually stabilizing at lower levels, with MACD turning bullish and price moving toward the upper Bollinger Band, signaling a clearer short-term technical recovery. News circulating on X has intensified retail FOMO, driving ZKP up 32.80% over the past 24 hours, while SAFFRONFI surged more than 40%, mainly due to increased short-term trading activity. Bitcoin selling pressure has temporarily eased, but a durable market recovery will require a revival in spot demand. A crypto market structure bill may pass within the next few months, with stablecoin yields emerging as the key point of contention. Meanwhile, Jump Trading plans to exchange liquidity provision for minority equity stakes in Kalshi and Polymarket.

Real Vision founder Raoul Pal, leveraging 38 years of trading experience and 13 years of direct involvement in cryptocurrencies, emphasizes that the "HODL" strategy combined with buying during sharp market declines is more effective than attempting to time the market.

Gate Research Daily Report: On Feb. 9, the crypto market entered a choppy recovery phase after a deleveraging shock, with flows showing a clear structural split: capital crowding into BTC while major altcoins remain under pressure. BTC has rebounded and is consolidating around $70,000, which remains the key pivot for bulls vs. bears; ETH is being weighed down by whale deleveraging and debt-repayment selling, and may repeatedly test the $2,000 psychological level in the near term. On the thematic side, AI Agents and memes remain the high-beta core, with BNKR, PIPPIN, and PENGUIN leading gains. In our Alpha section, we highlight Vitalik’s view that algorithmic stablecoins represent “true DeFi,” Cathie Wood’s thesis that gold strength tends to lead and BTC follows, and Tether’s accelerating shift toward a conglomerate model via global diversification, governance upgrades, and expanded hiring.

Gate Research: Between 2025 and 2026, PayFi is evolving from a crypto payment tool into a next-generation payment and financial engine, with stablecoins achieving scale in high-frequency and cross-border payments and demonstrating clear efficiency and cost advantages over traditional systems. As Web2 and Web3 continue to converge, institutions such as Visa, PayPal, and emerging neobanks are becoming key gateways to mainstream adoption, while the combination of stablecoins, real-world assets (RWA), and AI is shaping PayFi’s foundational architecture by enabling automated, always-on settlement, asset mobility, and risk management. Looking ahead to 2026, regulatory clarity, scalable asset tokenization, and the maturity of AI-driven financial systems will be the primary determinants of PayFi’s competitive landscape and long-term barriers.

Gate Research Daily Report: On February 6, BTC stabilized and rebounded after a rapid sell-off that pushed prices down to around USD 60,000, and is now consolidating above the USD 64,000 level; ETH followed the broader market decline, briefly dipping to around USD 1,745 before quickly recovering; GT formed a short-term low near USD 6.23 after a deep pullback and is currently in an oversold rebound phase with a low-level consolidation structure; ZEUS became the market focus with a gain of 89.29%. Crypto ETFs continued to see net outflows, reflecting a clear decline in institutional risk appetite; the sharp drop in Bitcoin prices led Strategy to report a USD 12.4 billion loss in Q4; meanwhile, Tether invested USD 150 million to acquire a stake in Gold.com, accelerating its expansion into tokenized gold.

The article precisely analyzes the duality of "negative Rho Bitcoin" vs "positive Rho Bitcoin" and distinguishes the essential difference between benign deflation and malignant deflation.

Gate Research Weekly Report: BTC broke below $73,000 as deleveraging continued, with total liquidations reaching $2.56 billion over recent days; ETH pulled back to the key $2,000 support level, while a deeply negative premium index signals weakening institutional demand. Stablecoin market capitalization edged lower, and Ethereum gas fees remained subdued. Amid a structurally weak market, select assets moved counter-trend, including the BNB Chain Chinese meme coin “我踏马来了,” WMTX driven by the DePIN narrative, and SYN supported by adoption within the Filecoin ecosystem. On the event front, Ripple Prime integrated Hyperliquid, introducing a prime-brokerage model to on-chain derivatives, while Bitnomial launched regulated XTZ futures. On-chain data show a renewed convergence between profitable and unprofitable BTC supply, a historical “bottom signal” that may point BTC toward the $60,000 range, with key support at the 2021 peak near $69,000. Vitalik Buterin reassessed the L2 roadmap, emphasizing differentiated val